It is now nearly five years since Vasya Aksyonov died, much too young, like many of his compatriots who began their public careers in the 1960s during Nikita Khrushchev’s brief “Thaw.” A couple of years ago I was asked to write a short piece on Vasya for a volume of collective essays dedicated to him. I don’t know whether it was published in Russian (I never got a copy), but here is a link to my essay in English for those who may be interested: Remembering Vasya Aksyonov
Johanna Granville on Poker with Putin
Dr. Johanna Granville, a professor at the American University of Bulgaria, who has conducted extensive research in Ukraine, has written a thoughtful policy paper (“The Folly of Playing High-Stakes Poker with Putin”) that identifies some of the dangers that can arise from a U.S. policy that tends to divide Ukrainians rather than helping unite them. Though it was written a few weeks ago and thus does not take account of the most recent events, her observations are still pertinent and her essay deserves the attention of all those with an interest in helping keep the people of Eastern and Western Ukraine in the same state and avoiding both civil conflict and Russian annexation of some Eastern provinces.
In summary, here are the conclusions of Granville’s paper, The Folly of Playing High-Stakes Poker with Putin: More to Lose than Gain over Ukraine:
In the weeks following the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, both the United States and European Union have issued a range of sanctions to punish the Putin administration. But a belligerent response aimed at “punishing Putin,” even if confined to economic measures, will probably just escalate the crisis. Continue reading
Golinkin on the Language Issue in Ukraine
Much of the media and official comment on the turmoil in Ukraine has focused on geopolitical factors, with little attention to the historical context of the various issues or to one of the most emotional issues dividing Ukraine: the status of the Russian language. One of the first acts of the Ukrainian parliament following the forcible ouster of President Yanukovich was to vote by an overwhelming majority to deprive the Russian language of official status. This law was promptly vetoed, but to Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens in the East and South, it was viewed as a deliberate act to make them second-class citizens.
Lev Golinkin, an American writer who was born in Kharkiv and came to the United States as a child has written a perceptive essay explaining the importance of the language issue to many in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. He has agreed that I can share it here.
The Lessons of Donetsk’s Referendum
By Lev Golinkin
While the 5/11/14 referendum conducted by eastern Ukrainian separatists cannot in any way be considered legitimate as far as fairly-monitored elections go, it does shed light on two crucial points about the situation on the ground. First, contrary to the narrative coming out of eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk Basin is not just a land of masked, Moscow-backed militants. It is also home to factory workers, miners, families, and scarf-wrapped babushki. Continue reading
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Chas Freeman on Unforseen Complexities in the World
Ambassador Chas Freeman delivered a speech today in Victoria, B.C., with a brilliant analysis of changes in the world that have caught American policy makers, and must media pundits, by surprise. I would call attention especially to his observation, “The underlying strengths of the United States are so great that it can still make all the difference. But, what sort of difference it makes depends on how linked American strategic behavior is to regional realities, resource constraints, and international prestige and influence.” In several recent problem areas, we seem to have de-linked all three of these limiting factors in forming our policy Continue reading
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РАСШИРЕНИЕ НАТО: А БЫЛО ЛИ ОБЕЩАНИЕ?
Pavel Palazhchenko kindly translated an article I wrote for Комсомольская правда, but which was published in a garbled and, in places, inaccurate translation. I am much obliged to him for making clear to the Russian reader what I wrote.
Вопрос не простой, поскольку на это счет было немало сказано многими политическими лидерами, причем в основном в форме не обещаний, предложений или соображений для переговоров. Если же говорить о дипломатических контактах между США и СССР в 1989 —1990 годах, то мне представляется, что наиболее важны следующие моменты:
NATO EXPANSION: WAS THERE A PROMISE?
The Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda asked me to write an article on what was said regarding NATO expansion during the negotiations concerning German unification in 1990. I submitted the following:
This is not a simple question since much was said by many political leaders and most were proposals or ideas for negotiation, not promises. But the following points seem to me the most important regarding diplomatic contacts between the United States and the Soviet Union in 1989 and 1990:
(1) All the discussions in 1990 regarding the expansion of NATO jurisdiction were in the context of what would happen to the territory of the GDR. There was still a Warsaw Pact. Nobody was talking about NATO and the countries of Eastern Europe. However, the language used did not always make that specific.
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Anatol Lieven: Ukraine should be a bridge, not a battleground
Anatol Lieven has published a brilliant essay that should be read and absorbed by everyone who wishes to understand what is happening in and around Ukraine today. I quote it with thanks to the author for permission to do so.
QUOTE
Ukraine Should Be a Bridge, Not a Battleground
In recent weeks, rational argument concerning Ukraine in both Russia and the West has been overwhelmed by a flood of hysteria, lies and self-deceptions. Russia has engaged in openly mendacious propaganda. Western governments and too much of the media have responded with lying counter-propaganda of their own.
Posted in In the World, Musings and Polemics
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Why Putin Should Thank Obama
Igor Oleynik, CEO of International Business Publications in Washington, DC, has sent me a spoof letter from Putin to Obama. Like most satire, it is over the top in some of its points, but it does illustrate the obvious fact that the way the Ukrainian situation has been handled by the Obama Administration has in fact strengthened President Putin’s hand at home.
It is hard for me to believe that this was President Obama’s intent. So the question arises: have the pressures of domestic politics so blinded the Administration to the consequences of its actions abroad that it has lost the presumed American virtue of pragmatism?
Now the tongue-in-cheek draft letter:
Russia’s Media Distortions Are Dangerous for Russia
I have been told that some of my comments on this blog have been taken out of context by some Russian media and presented as if I were justifying current Russian policy toward Ukraine. I do not have time to search out on the internet and listen to what was actually said, but if I have been quoted in a way to suggest that my comments in any way approve or condone the recent Russian actions in and in regard to Ukraine, then the impression given is the opposite of that intended.
Posted in In the World, Musings and Polemics
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Russia Should Leave Crimea in Ukraine
Pavel Koshkin, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Russia Direct, has asked me the following question:
“Today Crimea’s parliament have voted for its accession to Russia as a subject of the federation and scheduled this issue for a referendum on March 16. How can this stance escalate the tensions around the Crimea crisis? Some Russian experts (like Carnegie Moscow Center Director Dmitri Trenin) argue that it may drive Russia and the West at another cold war . Do you agree? Why? What are the implications for Russia, the U.S. and the EU?”
The appeal by the Crimean self-appointed parliament is very serious indeed, and if it results in the Russian Federation accepting Crimea as a subject of the federation, it will rebound seriously to Russia’s disadvantage. Continue reading
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