The polls and pundits assure us that the presidential election November 6 will be close. Some even speak of a virtual tie. They are probably right, and if they are, this raises serious questions about the rationality of large segments of the American public. Continue reading
“Nine-Eleven” Eleven Years Out
All of us who were alive eleven years ago and more than two or three years old at the time will remember the shock, horror, and anger aroused by the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Northern Virginia. It is quite proper that on each anniversary, in particular, we honor those who were victims and especially those who lost their lives or damaged their health trying to rescue the victims, most of all those brave passengers on the United Airlines flight that crashed in Pennsylvania.
Nevertheless, there is one aspect of the attacks on the United States which receives little attention on these anniversaries: they could have been prevented and they should have been prevented. I explained in detail why I came to that conclusion in Chapter Eight of Superpower Illusions. Continue reading
Romney: Wrong on Russia
When President Obama was overheard telling Russian president Dmitri Medvedev that he could be “more flexible” in negotiations on missile defense following the election, Governor Mitt Romney was quick to pounce, calling Russia America’s “Number one geopolitical foe.” The New York Times accurately observed that “his comments display either a shocking lack of knowledge about international affairs or just craven politics.”
The Russian Election: Watch Mikhail Prokhorov
Most observers assume that Vladimir Putin will win on the first ballot in Sunday’s election. That is as close to certain as anything in the future can be, but the interesting question will be whether extensive fraud will be required to get him an official majority. A second question is how much support Mikhail Prokhorov will attract. The other candidates opposing Putin are clowns, stooges, or hang-overs with no real political future. Prokhorov, reputed to be Russia’s third richest oligarch, however, is a new face in Russian politics, and one that may play an important role in the future. Take a look at Lucian Kim’s blog entry describing one of Prokhorov’s campaign appearances.
Posted in In the World
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The GOP Presidential Primary Circus: Radical is Not Conservative
Tom Friedman has a column in today’s New York Times that really hits home. Entitled “We Need a Second Party,” he bewails the absence of any evidence that the politicians competing for the Republican nomination for president have a clue about the most serious problems facing us today.
Instead of discussing the real issues, they compete in courting the support of passionate splinter groups that combine a dedication to single-issue objectives with flat refusal to compromise. Continue reading
Posted in In the United States, Musings and Polemics
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Demonstrations in Moscow
You will find an eyewitness description of the demonstrations in Moscow yesterday here.
You will also find a very interesting discussion of the charges by Prime Minister Putin that the United States has been trying to create an “Orange Revolution” against his regime here.
In my opinion these charges are ridiculous, but I also think that it is a mistake to have Americans directly involved as political activists in other countries. Continue reading
Posted in In the World
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Gorbachev’s Achievements
Oxford Professor Archie Brown, who has written several insightful studies of Gorbachev and, most recently, a much acclaimed The Rise and Fall of Communism, summarized in a recent posting what he considers Gorbachev’s twelve most significant achievements.
He points out that the list is not exhaustive (there were other changes for the better), but the following are twelve fundamental breaks with the Soviet past which Russia and the world owes primarily to Gorbachev: Continue reading
Posted in In the World
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Mikhail Gorbachev’s 80th Birthday
Mikhail Gorbachev, former President of the Soviet Union, will turn 80 on March 2. It is remarkable to me that so many of his compatriots fail to recognize his contribution to some of the most momentous changes in world politics. Bearing this in mind, I have sent him the message below. For those who suspect that I am just “being nice,” I would emphasize that I believe every word in the message and I do not think any of the phrases I use distort or embellish the truth. Here is what I said: Continue reading
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The Upside of Wikileaks
Today’s New York Times has an article that points up a positive aspect of Wikileaks… the opportunity for the public to appreciate the cogent analysis and creative writing of the U.S. Foreign Service. But perhaps the future impact of the leaks will go well beyond a new respect for under-appreciated diplomats.
Reading these leaked reports gives me the impression of a world-wide fraternity, as if the diplomatic world was the venue for a global high stakes invitation-only poker game. Wikileaks has meant that one of the players (or was it the dealer?) has just dropped his cards on the table and also opened the blinds to the outside. From the outside looking in, it seems that everyone in the room is talking and joking with each other, posturing as they play their hand. The overall impression of the world of the decision makers is one of competitive fraternity, not a world of irreconcilable uncommunicative factions, as the media or ideological purists might portray it, but a world of players in a shared social space. Contemplating the existence of that common space, I find hope for potential solutions to the world’s “intractable” problems.
Posted in In the World, Musings and Polemics
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Russia, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia
Sofia, Bulgaria, October 7, 2010
I was asked to speak on problems in the Caucasus at the New Political Forum organized by the Gorbachev Foundation in Sofia. Although I am by no means an expert on the Caucasus, I tried to apply our experience in ending the Cold War to the present situation. Here is a summary of my observations:
At present, though most fighting has stopped, the peace is tenuous in the Caucasus and many questions loom over the future. It is clear that the area has not benefited from the end of the Cold War. Neither Georgia nor the areas that have declared their independence have been able to turn independence into peace and progress for their people. Continue reading
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